National poll shows DLP would win snap election in Dominica

The Dominica Labour Party (DLP) would win a general election if it was called immediately, according to the results of a national poll.

And although the opposition United Workers' Party (UWP) could gain votes, their efforts are hampered by poor delivery of their message and the legal baggage of their leader, Lennox Linton.

If poll results hold, the prediction would see the DLP win 12 seats while the UWP could take nine.

The survey was conducted by Alex Bruno, who describes himself on his Facebook page as a social observer/commentator, trained philosopher and political scientist.

It sought to answer the question: “Which political party will win Dominica’s next general parliamentary elections?”

The results, which were released yesterday, show “the DLP will hold on to governing power in the parliament of Dominica should elections be held today” with a 58% share of votes.

This is a statement the author makes “with 95% confidence”.

Competitive constituencies

The research concentrated on the 13 constituencies which Bruno believes are reasonably expected to play a more significant role in determining the next Dominican government.

These are Roseau Central, Roseau North, Roseau Valley, Roseau South, Soufriere, Mahaut, St. Joseph, Colihaut, Salybia, Wesley, Morne Jaune, Castle Bruce, La Plaine.

The report states: “Respondents were of the opinion that the DLP will retain eleven (11) seats – the Vielle Case, Portsmouth, Cottage, Grand Bay, Paix Bouche, Colihaut, Salybia, La Plaine, Soufriere, Castle Bruce and Mahaut constituencies.

“The Petite Savanne constituency is a contingency seat which could also be called for the DLP, based on polling data – albeit inconclusive.

“It was also the opinion of the respondents that the United Workers Party (UWP) will hold on to its six (6) currently held seats – Marigot, Salisbury, Wesley, Roseau Central, Roseau North and Roseau South – while becoming more competitive in Morne Jaune which this poll declares as a toss-up seat.

“The UWP could grab the Morne Jaune seat within the margin of error if the

majority of the undecided vote goes UWP’s way.”

St Joseph and Roseau Valley also polled competitively for the UWP, the report said, and could swing either way. St Joseph was identified as the seat “which seems most vulnerable.”

But overall the “DLP wins across the broad spectrum of opinions and this boosts the party’s profile as a winning entity, at least in the opinion of our samples.”

The report notes that this survey is based on the existing declared candidates from the island’s last general election in 2014 – apart from in the Soufriere constituency, which saw Ian Pinard replaced in a 2016 by-election.

Party leaders

Alex Bruno’s report singles out Linton as one of the problems within the UWP – and that his tenure makes it less like they will win.

“However, the latter [the UWP winning nine seats] will require a herculean task which is somewhat impeded by the incoherent messaging of the opposition party, and compounded by the public legal distraction of its leader, Mr. Lennox Linton,” it reads.

READ THE FULL REPORT HERE