Tropical Storm Fred moving towards Southwest of Puerto Rico

Wednesday, 11th August 2021

Caribbean: Tropical Storm Fred erupted off the coast of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night, becoming the sixth storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm was about 45 kilometers south-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico, on Tuesday with sustained winds of 40 km/h. Much of the Caribbean is ready for the storm. It is presumed to continue westward near Puerto Rico, then to Hispanola on Wednesday and near the southeastern Bahamas on the following day, Thursday. Tropical storm alerts apply to Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, the US Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic. According to the NHC, tropical storm surges include:

The southeastern Bahamas.
The Turks and Caicos Islands.
Parts of Haiti.
The north coast of the Dominican Republic.

A tropical storm warning indicates that tropical storm situations are likely within 36 hours in the warning area. Fred is not currently expected to strengthen into a hurricane, but meteorologist Michael Guy said the forecast will develop as the storm progresses. The storm is expected to reach South Florida by Friday, which could potentially fall over the Florida Keys, Guy said. The system will bring flooding to parts of the Caribbean during the middle of the week, raising concerns about rapid flooding and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. "The biggest threat to floods is the eastern and southeastern parts of Puerto Rico," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are presumed to receive two to four inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to six inches. The Dominican Republic can also get three to six inches. More modest totals of one to three inches are calculated for the Windward Islands. Serious surf and tearing currents are also affecting the Caribbean Islands and will continue within the warning and guard areas. Strong winds and heavy rainfall threaten a larger area over Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Cuba in the latter portion of the week as the storm travel over the northern Caribbean countries. As the system approaches and possibly moves across Cuba, land interaction could significantly weaken the storm. There is still uncertainty in the trace of the disturbance, but some models show the storm traversing over the island, which could hamper reinforcement. Suppose the potential cyclone follows a more northerly path in open waters. In that case, there is still a possibility for further strengthening, but the forecast is still uncertain in the formation phases of the storm. "The storm will hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic for the next few days and probably not intensify much, but after that, there is a lot of hot water to get stronger," CNN meteorologist Chad Meyers said.