More humiliation for PM leads to more political turmoil for Britain

There was finally a victory for the British Government in the House of Commons after two days of humiliation in which it would have struggled to get support on anything at all. One suspects that a motion proposing “water is wet” or that “Brexit begins with ‘B’” would end up going down to the wire.

In the last few hours, the Government won a string of votes on amendments to their motion seeking an extension of Article 50 and delaying Brexit beyond 29 March. The main motion passed by 412 votes to 202.

But this was a hollow victory for Mrs. May as the proposal of the motion was something she was forced into by a series of humiliating defeats over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday in which many of her own Ministers, let alone backbench MPs, defied the whip and failed to support her.

This was not a victory for something the Prime Minister wanted, this was a victory for something she has desperately been hoping to avoid.

Indeed, she will still be looking to avoid it. Her deal – voted down comprehensively twice already – will be put to MPs for a third time next week. Mrs. May hopes that the threat of a delayed Brexit will be enough to push the hard-line Brexiteer MPs in her Party who have voted against the deal to vote for it and ensure Brexit happens on time.

So, what does today’s vote mean?

MPs have voted to seek an extension to Article 50 until 30 June 2019. This follows MPs voting to reject leaving without a deal on Wednesday. Today’s vote also means that the Government is still in control of the process – an amendment aimed at allowing Parliament to take control of the process fell by the narrow margin of 2 votes (312 votes to 308).

Despite today’s vote, the decision to extend Article 50 is not the UK’s to make alone. Whether an extension is granted depends on the EU agreeing to do so. EU leaders have already signalled that they will not grant an extension only to have the same conversations and negotiations. It will only be granted if there is a process of change.

This essentially leaves two options to get an extension;

1) If it looks like Mrs. May’s deal could get through Parliament, the EU is likely to accept the extension MPs have voted to seek today. But this will have to be done before the end of the day on 20 March as a European Summit is due to be held on the 21st.

2) If that doesn’t happen, the EU could grant a much longer extension which will essentially start the process again. The prospect of a delay to Brexit in which a referendum may be held to overturn it, is what may be enough to get MPs who have voted against Mrs. May’s deal to vote for it.

If the EU doesn’t agree to an extension, the position would be a no deal Brexit. But given Parliament has rejected a no-deal Brexit, this could begin a complicated process in which Britain revokes Article 50 and then re-triggers it at a later date to give two years to find a deal again.

The view from the inside: Speaking to WIC News, three MPs gave their views on what happens next.

“Labour keep talking about a permanent Customs Union – and that’s just not leaving at all; you still have freedom of movement, you still have membership fees and we’re still not leaving the political institutions and we can’t do our own trade deals.”

Brexiteer MP Paul Scully (Conservative) told us he was concerned about the future of Brexit. “I am worried. I voted for the deal both times it’s come to Parliament because I’m not going to be a heroic loser. Having campaigned to leave and voted to leave, I want to make sure we get that across the line because that’s what the country expects us to do. There are some hard-line Leavers that want to leave with some sort of perfect Brexit that doesn’t exist. Let’s just get on and get this done.”

He was also sceptical about an extension to Article 50 and felt that the desperation to avoid no-deal was counter-productive to achieving a good deal.

“I think you’ve got to keep No Deal on the table – you’re not in any sort of negotiating position if you’re not prepared to walk away without something. I don’t think anyone – except a few hard-line MPs - wants it as a default position.”

He urged the hard-line ERG MPs of his Party to now finally support this deal. “We can get this across the line, if the people who are digging in for a perfect Brexit that just doesn’t exist actually realise that this is the best you’re going to get. Everybody’s looking at you to deliver the result. You need to get this through.”

He also felt that British politics had become farcical and the process risked hurting the image of Britain both domestically and internationally. “You look at evenings like tonight and I’m always sitting there thinking ‘can we do anything more stupid to cap the last time?’ and it always seems to be the case that that’s happening. People are thinking “What on earth’s going on?” and quite frankly, I’m doing the same. I’m looking at colleagues and thinking, people are looking at us for leadership, we’ve got to give it to them.”

Meanwhile, Labour MP Lesley Laird told our reporter that this process is a “Tory mess” and that the House needs to “unite around something.” The problem, according to Ms. Laird was that “we don’t know what that something is yet.” That’s why the extension was needed in order to “explore all the options”. Asked why Labour had allowed the Government to take complete control of the process over the last two-and-a-half years and not been more forceful in being a part of negotiations from the outset, Ms. Laird suggested that the blame for that lay at Theresa May’s door saying that it was the Prime Minister’s “red lines based on her interpretation of the referendum” that had caused the chaos.

She also emphatically dismissed the prospect of Labour supporting the Prime Minister’s deal and felt that a third attempt displayed the Prime Minister’s “arrogance”. “Even though her deal’s been defeated twice, there is talk of trying to run it for a third time. It certainly won’t be lucky. We’re not going to accept it.”

She promised that the Labour Party would do its best to deliver a Brexit people could get behind. “We will find our way out of this and we will not allow two years of Tory mismanagement to cause untold havoc to this country.”

SNP’s Westminster leader, rather predictably, said that “Scotland has to become independent” and that “we will not allow Scotland to be dragged out of the European Union against our will.” When it was put to him that it is hard to imagine a time riper for the Scottish independence cause than now and that an inability to get independence at this time suggests that independence is not really desired, Mr Blackford said he was “confident that the Scottish people will recognise that we need to have a second referendum on independence.”

In an uncertain period in British politics, there is only one thing you can be sure of. The drama will not end here.