Tropical cyclone could have an impact on Leeward Islands

Caribbean: The meteorological services of Antigua and Barbuda are closely following the progress of tropical disturbance AL94, which has the potential to become a tropical depression within 36 hours and could have an impact on the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

Given the very great uncertainty of whether AL94 will become a tropical cyclone before it reaches the area and even greater uncertainties about the predicted orbit, intensity and size, if it were to develop into a storm, it is impossible to predict exactly what will happen to this system, at this time.

Nevertheless, in the worst case, the disturbance poses no threat to the islands at all, but it can change rapidly and require prompt action by residents to protect property and livelihoods.

At 14 hours ECT or 18:00 UTC, tropical disturbance AL94 was located about 645 miles southeast of the Leeward Islands, at 10 to 15 km/h.

Maximum sustained winds are close to 30 km/h with higher gusts. Guided reinforcement is forecast and the system has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Tuesday and a 50 percent chance by Friday.

On its forecasting trajectory, the system is likely to have an effect on the Leeward Islands on Monday night and the British Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Local rainfall and strong gusts are possible. Although unlikely, further development to a tropical storm can not be ruled out while the disturbance is over or near the islands.

Please note that no alerts, clocks or alerts are currently in effect, but this may change within the next 24 hours. Residents must continue to closely monitor tropical disturbance AL94 and draw up their hurricane season plans in the event that prompt action is needed to protect life, property and livelihoods.