Heatwaves will not be as intense as last 2 years despite early heat season in Caribbean: Reports

Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) based in Barbados has reported that the heat season in the Caribbean is most likely to start occurring as early as April, slowly ramping up, but will not be as intense as 2024 and 2023.  

CariCOF said that while heatwaves this year may not be as intense as those in the past two years, but the region is still at risk of extreme weather conditions. It is said that heatwaves could begin as early as April, with night time temperatures anticipated to be higher than the usual.  

Between April and May, the region will likely experience increased rainfall that could lead to flash floods. On the other hand, Saharan dust episodes are anticipated to be more frequent and warmer ocean temperatures are also likely to contribute to a more active hurricane season.  

It is also anticipating that in April there could be high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells and buildup of any type of ongoing drought increases wildlife potential.  

The forum is further advising the Caribbean countries to remain prepared as shifting weather patterns could still bring major challenges in the months ahead.  

CariCOF said that except for the mostly dry ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), the intensity of rainfall and frequency of showers will rise towards May in the Bahamas, Guianas and Greater Antilles and June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles which will result in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods as well as associated impacts.  

According to the forum, episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent and the more frequent these will be, the more dryness and heat will occur.  

Talking about the drought situation, the forum said that moderate or worse short term drought has already developed in the central and northern Bahamas, parts of St Croix, Cayman Islands, St Bart’s and Sint Maarten. It is being reported that long-term drought is evolving in southern Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, St Vincent, St Bart’s and northwest Trinidad.