Myanmar: Hopefulness and Terror

Myanmar: Over the weekend and until Monday in Myanmar, the situation in the country continued to crumble. Although the civil disobedience movement continues to show its strength, the army began cracking down on the weekend and Monday with deadly violence in Mandalay and other parts of the country; Police in Mandalay have killed two protesters and injured at least 20 others on Saturday. This decision indeed foretells coming oppression with deadly violence in Yangon. There, in the largest city, the protests were massive, and the junta may have been wary of confronting such large groups, especially in a place where most embassies, reporters, and other foreigners work in Myanmar. But in other areas, such as Mandalay and other parts of the country, where there are fewer media coverage and little than any foreign observers, the authorities are already shooting at protesters. So far, this escalation has not deterred protesters; there was a massive turnout in the thousands of people on Sunday and Monday in Myanmar. However, the situation is particularly ominous for several reasons. One, as independent analyst David Scot Mathieson notes in a detailed article on the Tatmadaw, the Myanmar army has consistently shown high levels of cruelty and the ability to prevent it from shattering, even in the face of protests and other pressures that forced the military to splinter in other countries. "The Tatmadaw has been remarkably successful in ensuring institutional cohesion," he notes. Second, Myanmar's armed forces, which have already become notorious for brutality and crime in other parts of the country, such as the 33rd Light Infantry operating in the state of Rakhine, appear to be deploying in major cities such as Mandalay. This is a sign that the Tatmadaw leadership is possibly preparing for much greater violence, and it has similarities with the repression after previous coups in Myanmar, such as the one in 1988, when military units were released in major cities, after being fed with the propaganda about the protesters which they then killed in large numbers. According to the Financial Times, arrests are also on the rise; nearly six hundred people have been arrested or charged or sentenced in recent weeks.

Third, as veteran analyst Bertan Lintner noted in Myanmar, it appears that this coup was long overdue, as the junta government put together such a large cabinet and advisory council, which was probably planned long before the actual planning. Such planning and coordination indicate that an army of armed forces is prepared to enter in the long run.

Myanmar protesters on Monday probably held the biggest protests since the coup, in light of the junta warnings that the demonstrations could be committed with great force. The civil disobedience movement and a large part of the country are nearly closed. Some states in Southeast Asia have even begun to react slowly, and Indonesia has called on other associations of the Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN) to develop a plan to hold the junta until elections. For now, however, the prospect of severe repression remains.