2023 breaks global temperature records : European Climate Agency

The global temperature in 2023 has broken the previous annual record, setting a new benchmark in the process, as stated by the European Climate Agency on Tuesday. This development is being seen as a stark warning of the consistently rising temperature levels which are now beginning to close in on the globally accepted warming threshold.

The European Climate Agency was one of the first of several scientific agencies dedicated to researching and recording global temperatures to come out with the information that 2023 experienced temperatures that were 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

This is a major problem for the world as it has all but exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, which was agreed upon by nations as a part of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord meant to curb the effects of climate change.

European Climate Agency Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess stated that January 2024 has already displayed signs that this year, temperatures will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold.

One must note, though, that to breach the accepted limit, the planet would have to average 1.5 degrees of warming over two or three decades. Having said that, the fact that the planet is on track to break that threshold is a sign of significant worry to many, including well-known climate activists and scientific organisations dedicated to studying changes in the global climate.

Burgess gave her thoughts on the issue, stating the following, “The 1.5 degree goal has to be (kept) alive because lives are at risk and choices have to be made and these choices don't impact you and I but they impact our children and our grandchildren."

Europe, North America, China and various other regions of the world suffered unbearable heat waves, which turned deadly in some cases. To make matters worse for regions such as the Caribbean, the rise in temperature is also marked as a reason for the extreme weather conditions experienced in such regions, which have been known to be vulnerable to the elements.

Some examples of this from around the world include the torrential downpours that wiped out dams and killed thousands in Libya, wildfires in Canada and the United States and the lengthy drought that devastated the Horn of Africa.

On a positive note, the consistently bad news with regard to climate change prompted nations from around the world to agree on the fact that the world needs to transition away from fossil fuels, even though specific measures have not been introduced on an international scale.

Burgess explained that the figure being presented by Copernicus might seem miniscule and the change insignificant, but the fact remains that when applied to global temperature levels, the subsequent effect is quite drastic.

Copernicus has revealed data that shows the global average for 2023 to be one-sixth of a degree Celsius (0.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the record that was previously set in the calendar year of 2016. It has also been revealed that according to Copernicus, the measure for the average global temperature for 2023 stands at 14.98 degrees Celsius (58.96 degrees Fahrenheit).

Burgess explained that while there were multiple factors that contributed to 2023 being the warmest year recorded, the most significant impact came from the consistently rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which continue to trap heat at ever increasing rates.

As is natural, the usage of coal, oil and natural gas have been recognized as the most significant contributing factor.

Burgess added that, "It was record-breaking for seven months. We had the warmest June, July, August, September, October, November, December. It wasn't just a season or a month that was exceptional. It was exceptional for over half the year."

Burgess also mentioned other contributing factors that have left their mark on 2023’s temperature levels, including natural oscillations in the Arctic, southern and Indian oceans, increased solar activity, the 2022 eruption of an undersea volcano that sent water vapour into the atmosphere and temporary warming of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide.

A climate scientist from the University of Melbourne named Malte Meinshausen summed up the split between contributing factors best by stating that 1.3 degrees Celsius of the warming could be attributed to greenhouse gases, while 0.1 degrees Celsius of the change was due to El Nino activity and the rest was brought on by the various other minor contributing factors mentioned previously.

Going by the data and taking into consideration the record-breaking ocean heat levels, coupled with El Nino activity, it is expected that 2024 will be even warmer than 2023.

While Copernicus is lauded as a reliable source of information for global temperature, global warming and related data, it must be noted that its records go back to 1940 and the data gathered is based on observations and forecast models.

Other reputed organisations such as the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office and Berkeley Earth have gathered data from the mid-1800s onwards and are expected to issue their own assessments in 2023.

Despite the larger pool of data available to them, the expectation is that their reports will second the notion of 2023 being a record-breaking year in terms of global temperature levels.

There are other organisations such as the Japanese Meteorological Agency, which also find themselves in the thick of this conversation. The Japanese Meteorological Agency has maintained records since 1948 and employs similar techniques to those used by Copernicus. The organisation’s reports have been consistent with what has been reported by Copernicus, thus lending added credence to the report.

Experts in the field have also explained that even though tangible data and climate records date back roughly two centuries at best, the study of ice cores and tree rings has allowed scientists to come to the conclusion that 2023 was the warmest out of the previous 100,000 years.

Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center stated the following, "2023 was probably the hottest year on Earth in about 125,000 years. Humans were around before that, but it's certainly fair to say it's the hottest since humans became civilised, depending on the definition of 'civilised.' "

Meinshausen highlighted global concerns as to whether the 1.5-degree target agreed upon by most nations has now become untenable.

To address these concerns, he stated the following, "We are not abolishing a speed limit, because somebody exceeded the speed limit. We double our efforts to step on the brakes."