Alexander delivers presentation on metrological predictions in NEPO meeting
Senior Meteorological Officer Marshall Alexander gave his significant presentation on metrological predictions and current status after Elsa storms in the commonwealth of Dominica in the National Emergency Planning Organisation (NEPO) meeting on Friday.
Saturday, 10th July 2021
Dominica: Senior Meteorological Officer Marshall Alexander gave his significant presentation on metrological predictions and current status after Elsa storms in the commonwealth of Dominica in the National Emergency Planning Organisation (NEPO) meeting on Friday.
At the beginning of the address, he gave the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season prediction according to which.
Normal season: 13 to 20
Named storms: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes : 3 to 6
Additionally, he showed some change in average predictions, as per that 14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
He also noted that these predictions were made with 70 % confidence.
Some Reasons for predictions as per Alexander:
- Lack of El Niño, which is the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, would generally suppress activity.
- LA NIÑA or neutral conditions expected -increased activity - cooler temperatures in the Eastern Pacific.
- Warmer than average seas surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea and favourable winds over West Africa, all of which support increased hurricane activity.
- Projected path and intensity
- Probability-based on the definition of watch or warning using sustained winds.
- Above a normal forward speed
- Size of the system ( radius of wind field )
- Rapid intensification to hurricane strength (uncertainty into play-no chance taken )
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