Jamaica: Revenue and Grants for 2019/20 projected at $644 billion

The inflow of revenue and grants for the 2019/20 Fiscal Year is conservatively projected at $644.2 billion or 29.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

This, according to the Government’s 2019/20 Fiscal Policy Paper, is 3.3 per cent greater than the projected $633.9 billion for 2018/19, which totalled 30.7 per cent of GDP.

Tax revenue is budgeted at $575.7 billion or 26.7 per cent of GDP, some 7.1 per cent higher than the $537.5 billion forecast for 2018/19.

This projection is expected to account for 89.4 per cent of total revenues and grants this year, compared to the 86.2 per cent for 2018/19.

The Policy Paper indicates that for 2019/20, non-tax revenue is projected to be $59.6 billion or 2.8 per cent of GDP.

This represents a 19.1 per cent reduction compared to the 2018/19 projection, which is expected to be 3.6 per cent of GDP, consequent on the inclusion of one-time flows of approximately $20 billion.

Non-tax revenue projections include $5.3 billion from customs administration fees, transfers of $14.2 billion from de-earmarked entities, and $11.4 billion from the National Housing Trust (NHT).

Capital revenue is programmed at $3.1 billion, representing a 15.2 per cent decline over inflows forecasted for 2018/19.

Grants are projected to total $5.6 billion, equating to 0.3 per cent of GDP.

This, according to the Policy Paper, reflects a 36.9 per cent decline on the 2018/19 forecast of $8.9 billion.

The document indicates that this year’s projection reflects a decline in anticipated European Union (EU) inflows.

Loan financing for 2019/20 is projected to be $1-2.7 billion, reflecting an 8.9 per cent reduction relative to the last fiscal year.

Budget loan receipts comprise domestic borrowing of $56.4 billion, down 27.7 per cent, and external inflows of $46.2 billion, a 33.1 per cent increase compared to 2018/19.

The Fiscal Policy paper says that the overall decline in loan receipts reflects the lower borrowing requirement due to a larger fiscal surplus and reduced amortisation costs for 2018/19.