Alexander delivers presentation on metrological predictions in NEPO meeting
Senior Meteorological Officer Marshall Alexander gave his significant presentation on metrological predictions and current status after Elsa storms in the commonwealth of Dominica in the National Emergency Planning Organisation (NEPO) meeting on Friday.
Saturday, 10th July 2021

- Lack of El Niño, which is the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, would generally suppress activity.
- LA NIÑA or neutral conditions expected -increased activity - cooler temperatures in the Eastern Pacific.
- Warmer than average seas surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea and favourable winds over West Africa, all of which support increased hurricane activity.
- Projected path and intensity
- Probability-based on the definition of watch or warning using sustained winds.
- Above a normal forward speed
- Size of the system ( radius of wind field )
- Rapid intensification to hurricane strength (uncertainty into play-no chance taken )
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