Alexander delivers presentation on metrological predictions in NEPO meeting

Dominica: Senior Meteorological Officer Marshall Alexander gave his significant presentation on metrological predictions and current status after Elsa storms in the commonwealth of Dominica in the National Emergency Planning Organisation (NEPO) meeting on Friday. At the beginning of the address, he gave the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season prediction according to which. Normal season: 13 to 20 Named storms: 6 to 10 Major Hurricanes : 3 to 6 Additionally, he showed some change in average predictions, as per that 14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.He also noted that these predictions were made with 70 % confidence. Some Reasons for predictions as per Alexander: 

• Lack of El Niño, which is the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, would generally suppress activity.
• LA NIÑA or neutral conditions expected -increased activity - cooler temperatures in the Eastern Pacific. 
• Warmer than average seas surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea and favourable winds over West Africa, all of which support increased hurricane activity.

During the presentation, he also gave names of the hurricane of 2021 : Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wands.Presentation on ELSA : Alexander showed all major and minor details of Elsa in his presentation. He said, on Wednesday, his office stated that it was a typical potential cyclone; by 11 pm, it was classified as a tropical depression; by the 1st day of 1st July, at 5 pm, the depression became a tropical storm Elsa.He noted that after that, a weather statement was issued; also, the public was advised with several warnings including, Flood, small craft, high swift and high wind, advisory to come into effect.Notably, the centre hurricane Elsa quickly passed 158 miles to the south of Dominica at about 11 am and by 5 pm was into the Caribbean sea about 180 miles and moving away from Dominica with a forward speed of 30 miles per hour and maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour.At 5 pm tropical warning for Dominica was discontinued. Factors considered for Elsa : 

• Projected path and intensity
• Probability-based on the definition of watch or warning using sustained winds.
• Above a normal forward speed 
• Size of the system ( radius of wind field )
• Rapid intensification to hurricane strength (uncertainty into play-no chance taken )