Huge spike projected in US Covid-19 cases, fatalities

As American states started lifting restrictions with President Donald Trump helping them along, a major spike in Covid-19 infections and deaths was predicted in coming weeks by the administration and a generally cited public model that has secured its projections to the removal of social-distancing curbs.

The daily death toll was predicted to reach 3,000 by June 1, approximately double the current rate, and infections to 200,000 a day from the current 25,000 over the same period, according to an internal assessment of the Trump administration.

The toll was predicted to increase to 134,475 by August 4, according to the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation IHME), a University of Washington body whose projections are widely cited by the White House.

But the IHME forecast was clear. “The updated predictions show increasing mobility in most US states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, showing that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus,” it said in a statement.

President Trump has aggressively expedited for reopening the country and a return to normalcy with an eye on his re-election, even as he has had to temper his display of optimism by continuously revising upwards his own assessment of fatalities — he is now saying it can hit 100,000.

At 68,920 on Monday, the toll was way past the American President's earlier forecast of 60,000 and is poised to overtake not only his subsequent projections but also IHME’s.