Chances of hurricane up by 45%

The chances of the hurricane this season are up by 45%. This statement was made by acting senior meteorological officer, Marshal Alexander at a training session held for members of the media and communications sector.

During the training session at the office of disaster management in Jimmit Alexander explained that the prediction of an above-normal hurricane is due to a weak or non-existent El Niño this season.

Alexander said that “The absence of El Niño provides a lot of wind shear over the Atlantic that would impede the formation of tropical cyclones. In addition to that he said, “Because El Nino is no more, it has created favorable conditions for a tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.”

El Niño exists when the average sea surface temperature in the across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer than average, by at least 0.5C.

This warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean waters is often noted for keeping hurricane activity across the Atlantic Ocean at bay. The reason activity is less during El Niño is there is increased t-storm activity in the Pacific. This causes higher wind shear across the Atlantic Basin as well. Wind shear has an impact on hurricane development, as it doesn't allow the storms to grow vertically.

By method for correlation, the projection precisely reflects the forecast for the 2017 tropical storm season which saw the approach of Hurricane Irma and Maria that fashioned remarkable annihilation over the Caribbean. In the year 2017, El Nino was weak which resulted in the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Note that the expectation is a rare chance which does not ensure a similar outcome regardless of whether the figures are the equivalent or comparable with earlier years.

Maria smashed into Puerto Rico in September 2017, killing around 3,000 people, crippling the power grid and devastating the island’s agriculture and tourism industries.

Nations in the Caribbean are as yet recuperating from the terrifying demolition that occurred because of tropical storm Maria. Nations, for example, Commonwealth of Dominica, Puerto Rico alongside some different countries in the region are attempting to build climate-resilient houses to confront the hurricane season.